The Spike

The week of March 26, 2026, District 6 — which covers SoMa, the Tenderloin, and Civic Center — recorded 12 larceny theft incidents. The 12-week average for that same district and crime type is 3.4 incidents per week. That's a 251% jump, flagged as a statistically significant anomaly (more than 4 standard deviations above the comparison mean). For context: the previous weeks in the comparison window ranged from 1 to 8 incidents, with most weeks sitting at 1–5.

Why This Is Unusual

The timing is notable. The week of March 27 was simultaneously the lowest week for citywide property crime in the entire two-year dataset — just 23 incidents citywide. District 6 bucking that trend hard suggests something localized rather than a citywide pattern. Larceny theft (as opposed to burglary or robbery) typically means shoplifting, pickpocketing, or theft from vehicles — the kind of crime that concentrates around commercial corridors and transit hubs. SoMa and the Tenderloin have both.

The Broader District 6 Picture

District 6 has been a persistent hotspot in the anomaly data. The same week also saw a spike in missing person reports in the district (3 incidents vs. an average of 1.3). The neighborhood sits at the intersection of the city's highest foot traffic, its most concentrated homeless population, and its densest commercial activity — a combination that makes it a reliable leading indicator for citywide trends. When something shifts in District 6, it's worth paying attention.

One Week Doesn't Make a Trend

To be clear: 12 incidents in a week is not a crisis. It's a spike worth watching. If the following weeks return to the 3–5 range, this is noise. If they stay elevated, it's a signal that whatever drove the citywide property crime decline hasn't fully reached SoMa. The data for the week of April 3 will be the tell.